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Mesoscale Discussion 1785
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0554 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...FAR NW MO...FAR SE NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 012254Z - 020100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS WITH SOME STRENGTHENING EXPECTED. PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS SVR
   HAIL. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS NE KS.
   IMPETUS FOR THIS INITIATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT MAY BE THE RESULT
   WAA ALONG A REMANENT DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY.
   REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
   60S ARE RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG.
   SHEAR IS ALSO FAVORABLE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT.

   CURRENT REFLECTIVITY CHARACTER OF THE STORMS SUGGESTS THEY ARE
   ELEVATED BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF
   SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
   SURFACE-BASED SHORTLY.

   ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 10/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39209807 39479780 39929708 40089659 40259578 40259520
               40099482 39799466 39329475 38869529 38659645 38549803
               39209807 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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