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Mesoscale Discussion 1786
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0620 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KS/FAR NERN OK TO SWRN AND
   CENTRAL MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 511...

   VALID 012320Z - 020045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 511 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 511...WITH ALL
   SEVERE HAZARDS REMAINING A POTENTIAL THREAT.  A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED TO THE EAST OF WW 511 INTO PARTS OF
   SWRN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IL.  MEANWHILE...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS HAVE
   MOVED ENEWD THROUGH SERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KS INTO MO...THOUGH NEW
   STORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL IS BEING MONITORED ACROSS SERN TO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...SUCH THAT THIS PORTION OF WW 511 SHOULD NOT BE
   CANCELLED YET.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2310Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THREE PRIMARY
   THUNDERSTORM AREAS ACROSS WW 511...EACH PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
   EVENTS.  THE ERN MOST CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS MOVING EWD AT 30+ KT AND
   SHOULD REACH THE ERN PART OF THIS WATCH BY 00Z /NEAR THE WRN PART OF
   ST CHARLES COUNTY MO/.  THE ENVIRONMENT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
   INCLUDING THE STL METRO AREA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE
   STORMS APPROACHING ST CHARLES COUNTY TENDING TO TRACK EWD ALONG AN
   OUTFLOW RE-ENFORCED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD JUST NORTH OF KSTL. 
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND A MARGINAL TORNADO
   THREAT.  MEANWHILE...THE ENVIRONMENT EWD INTO IL IS RELATIVELY
   DRIER/LOWER THETA-E AIR MASS AS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST
   AND IS RESULTING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY.  STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM ERN MO/CENTRAL IL THIS
   EVENING...THOUGH THIS REGION MAY BE GLANCED BY THE SRN EXTENT OF
   THIS FORCING TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED TSTM POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING.  12Z 4 KM WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL BOTH SUGGEST STORMS WILL MOVE
   EWD ACROSS THE STL METRO AREA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS
   THEY TRACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL IL GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED LESS-FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT.

   WWD INTO CENTRAL MO...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING AND/OR MOVING ALONG E-W
   ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL
   ROTATION/TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
   SRH/SHEAR.

   MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED NEW STORMS IN BUTLER
   COUNTY KS AND IN SRN MONTGOMERY COUNTY KS...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY
   SHOWED THESE STORMS LOCATED WITHIN AREAS OF CU/TCU/CB WHERE THE
   PARAMETER SPACE FOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED STORMS.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   OUN...

   LAT...LON   39648922 38838901 38118903 37748938 37689020 37699099
               37649150 37409246 37099298 36979359 36879437 36789519
               36699586 36849679 37219730 37989725 38449675 38419619
               38699551 38819438 39249345 39409107 39678947 39648922 

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