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Mesoscale Discussion 1787
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0920 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF FAR ERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 020220Z - 020245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON
   WITH WFOS IN PARTS OF ERN KS THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL MO.  TSTMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD FROM ERN KS INTO WRN AND PARTS OF
   CENTRAL MO LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0205Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS...ONE APPROACHING THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA FROM NERN
   KS...AND THE SECOND MOVING EWD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL KS.  ADDITIONAL
   STORMS WERE FORMING TO THE WEST OF TOPEKA.  ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
   STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD EAST CENTRAL MO.  MUCH OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR OR MAINLY NORTH OF A
   COMPOSITE-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF KSTL TO
   KVIH TO 25 NW KTBN TO THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL KS. 
   WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH A STORM
   INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
   RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO
   LOWER THAT THREAT THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
   LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN KS INTO MO THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG A
   STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS TO WRN MO WILL
   SUSTAIN NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  ELEVATED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 35 KT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38089562 38989562 39659512 39529426 39409290 39299256
               38839258 38319269 38079311 37939367 37959455 38089562 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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