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Mesoscale Discussion 1788
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0959 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE/N-CNTRL KS...FAR S-CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 020259Z - 020500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM STRENGTH AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   INCREASE AS AN EWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS A MORE
   FAVORABLE AIRMASS. PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT IML AND OGA REPORTED
   PEAK GUSTS OF 48 AND 41 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVED
   THROUGH. MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FRONT FROM ABOUT 30
   MI W OF MHN SWD TO 2O MI SE OF GLD AND THEN SWWD TO JUST SE OF LHX.
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT
   CONTINUES EWD INTO AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   TO UPPER 50S. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACT TO ENHANCE THE
   DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR SVR HAIL
   AS WELL. 

   NRN EXTEND OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING SWD ACROSS NEB. RECENT ANALYSIS PLACED
   THIS BOUNDARY ALONG A LBF TO HDE TO OLU LINE. SRN EXTENT IS LESS
   CERTAIN BUT DRY AIR S OF DDC SHOULD ACT AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

   ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38440126 39290093 40130081 40430038 40379934 39899854
               39119867 38209962 38440126 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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