Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1789
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1789 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1789
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK TO WRN NORTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020400Z - 020630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF WRN
   NORTH TX THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL OK INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A FEW
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  GIVEN THE LIMITED
   COVERAGE FOR STRONGER-SEVERE STORMS...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT
   THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT FOR ANY INDICATION OF AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
   STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX
   AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/NM
   REGION BY 12Z.  AS THIS OCCURS...MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AND
   GENERALLY REMAIN MODEST WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z
   ACROSS WRN OK...RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT.  ALTHOUGH
   THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE SURFACE TO COOL...A
   RESERVOIR OF UNTAPPED MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   /EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR KICT SWWD TO 10 E KCSM
   TO NEAR KLTS TO 40 W KABI/.  DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER PER
   NORMAN 00Z SOUNDING COULD ENHANCE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS.

   00Z 4 KM WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL WHILE DIFFERING SOME IN THE TIMING OF
   STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE...EACH SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD E/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH
   TONIGHT.  GIVEN THAT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE
   INTO CENTRAL OK UNTIL TOWARD OR AFTER DAYBREAK...TSTM COVERAGE
   SHOULD BE SCATTERED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33999949 35819866 36899784 36979711 36869660 36229658
               35509667 34699700 34169753 33839810 33649886 33999949 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 02, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities