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Mesoscale Discussion 1789
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1789
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST WI/UPPER MI AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 170854Z - 171300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WI AND
   WESTERN UPPER MI THROUGH ABOUT 11Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA /EASTERN UPPER MI AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI/ BETWEEN
   11-14Z.  LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE FOR THIS HAIL THREAT
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AND ASCENT WITHIN A
   CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN WI AND
   WESTERN/CENTRAL MI DURING THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BENEATH DIFLUENT
   FLOW ALOFT.  THESE PROCESSES ARE AIDING IN EPISODIC SUSTAINED
   UPDRAFTS WITHIN AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTER...LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI PER 0840Z
   MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY.  MEANWHILE...THESE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MASS
   FIELDS ARE OCCURRING AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING
   INTO NORTHWEST WI AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR /ACCOMPANIED BY A 50-60
   KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB JET/ PER 08Z MOISTURE-CHANNEL SATELLITE
   IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS DATA.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8
   C PER KM/ OBSERVED WITH THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING...ONGOING ELEVATED
   DESTABILIZATION...AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PERSISTENT/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

   ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR COULD REACH WESTERN UPPER MI
   BY 12Z...MOST OF THE STRONGER SUSTAINED STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THAT
   REGION...GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.  GENERALLY EASTERLY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS
   EASTERN UPPER MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI SHOULD MAINTAIN A STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH ENE EXTENT...GIVEN A
   COOLER AIR MASS IN CENTRAL ONTARIO. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST STORMS
   SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AS THEY SPREAD TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
   THE EARLY-MID MORNING.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   45798977 46808885 47118741 46668458 46058403 45368445
               44958623 45018800 45128974 45798977 

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Page last modified: October 17, 2016
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