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Mesoscale Discussion 1791
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/MO INTO WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 513...

   VALID 020733Z - 020930Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 513
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LIMITED/LOW-END SEVERE RISK CONTINUES IN AND NEAR WW 513.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM...FROM PARTS OF OK/ERN KS EWD ACROSS MO INTO
   CENTRAL IL WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  STORMS
   HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
   SO...THOUGH A BOWING LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS E CENTRAL MO/W
   CENTRAL IL ATTM COULD POSE A RISK FOR GUSTY/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. 
   THIS CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE NERN FRINGE OF THE AXIS OF GREATER
   INSTABILITY...AND THUS EXPECT A LONGER-TERM WEAKENING TREND WITH
   THIS BAND OF STORMS.

   ELSEWHERE ACROSS ERN KS/MO...MARGINAL SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING
   LAYER IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT SPORADIC STRONGER/SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS...WITH MARGINAL
   HAIL AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY STRONGER GUST POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS.

   ..GOSS.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37199583 38269524 39339416 39999183 39988973 39148944
               38209130 37749364 36869475 37199583 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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