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Mesoscale Discussion 1792
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN KS/SERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514...

   VALID 020802Z - 021000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL PERSISTS IN/NEAR WW 514.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...THOUGH ONE STORM -- NOW
   OVER NUCKOLLS CO. NEB -- REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED.  LARGE
   HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY RISK...GIVEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF
   THE CONVECTION.

   WITH CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE QG ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION AND
   ADVANCING LOW-LEVEL COLD SURGE ACROSS KS/NEB...RISK FOR MARGINALLY
   SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST -- FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
   BOUNDARY.  WITH LIMITED -- BUT SUFFICIENT -- INSTABILITY EXTENDING
   EWD INVOF THE NEB/KS BORDER...SOME POTENTIAL THAT HAIL RISK MAY
   SPREAD E OF WW 514 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IS EVIDENT.  AS
   SUCH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF SERN NEB/NERN
   KS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GOSS.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39169880 40159848 41389815 41299764 40999644 39109679
               39169880 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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