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Mesoscale Discussion 1793
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1793
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA/NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021159Z - 021300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INCREASE APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK POSSIBLY BECOMING
   SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED/INTENSE
   STORM MOVING NEWD INTO CLOUD CO. KS ATTM...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
   ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF KS PER
   LATEST WV IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A VORT MAX MOVING EWD OUT OF SWRN CO. 
   THE STORM IS ELEVATED ABOVE A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER W OF THE SURFACE
   COLD FRONT...ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE MAIN CAPE AXIS AND WITHIN A
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. 
   POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS APPARENT...AS
   INCREASING ASCENT OVERSPREADS THIS AREA.  WHILE SEVERE RISK WOULD
   LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO LARGE HAIL...EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SAID
   THREAT COULD WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF NEW WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38829815 39659743 40519623 40819530 40849407 39879384
               39049545 38839710 38829815 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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