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Mesoscale Discussion 1794
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1000 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN OK / SERN KS / SWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 021500Z - 021730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
   POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS MORNING. 
   STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
   THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM
   OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS IS ANTICIPATED.  A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
   AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING EWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH THIS
   FEATURE FORECAST OVER CNTRL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON.  INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL FOSTER A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND THE TRANSITION FROM SUB-SEVERE STORMS
   DURING THE MID-MORNING TO ISOLD SEVERE BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
   AFTERNOON.  VEERING AND STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT PER
   KTLX/KINX/KSRX VAD DATA WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL SCALE BOWS.  THE INITIAL ACTIVITY
   WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON-LINEAR AND POSE PRIMARILY AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL
   RISK AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   STEEPEN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED.
   MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH A
   COALESCING OF STORMS INTO A LINEAR CONFIGURATION ALONG THE FRONT
   WITH TIME BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34189796 35339745 36489579 36659508 36579454 35969423
               35449449 34599539 34219629 33979746 34189796 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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