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Mesoscale Discussion 1795
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021659Z - 021830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...BETWEEN AREAS OF SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS WITHIN THE
   WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF THE BROADER CNTRL CONUS CYCLONE...POCKETS OF
   STRONGER SURFACE HEATING HAVE YIELDED TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
   LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH THIS OCCURRING AMIDST A RICHLY MOIST GULF
   AIR MASS....CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS...MODIFIED 12Z SGF/LZK/JAN RAOBS SUGGEST THE AIR MASS HAS
   BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION.
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CU APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY AGITATED/CLUMPING FROM
   THE OZARKS ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY...INFERRING THAT STORM
   DEVELOPMENT COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
   DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING FROM THE
   WEST...THEY SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AND SUPPORT A MORE
   ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK RELATIVE TO FARTHER SW.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37779165 38729075 39249012 39688929 39848872 39838778
               39678766 39308747 38938753 38088816 37168894 36518981
               36279042 36139093 36189137 36509185 36979191 37779165 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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