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Mesoscale Discussion 1796
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL...CNTRL...AND NERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 021839Z - 021945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
   FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH THE REGION.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
   POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/LOCALLY
   SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST HOUR HAS
   SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AGITATED CU FIELD NEAR THE FRONT FROM
   PALO PINTO COUNTY NEWD INTO MONTAGUE/COOK COUNTIES.  RICH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE SAMPLED BY THE 12Z FWD RAOB EXHIBITED A LOWEST 100-MB MEAN
   MIXING RATIO NEAR 15 G/KG BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION.  MODIFYING
   THE OBSERVED SOUNDING AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPS
   ABOVE 90 DEG F WILL BE REQUIRED VIA HEATING ALONE IN ORDER TO BREAK
   THE CAP.  HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND WILL RESULT IN THE
   INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. 
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 35 KT AND MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY WILL
   PROMOTE ISOLD LARGE HAIL GROWTH WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS...IN
   ADDITION TO A LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST RISK.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32489495 31549756 30959838 31239883 32449885 33669790
               33869727 33689465 32919433 32489495 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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