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Mesoscale Discussion 1797
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021857Z - 022030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW WEAK TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN SCATTERED
   STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO
   AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
   PLUME...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY. A COUPLE OF STORMS CENTERED OVER CARROLL AND HOLMES COUNTY
   MS EXHIBITED WEAK DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE THIS PAST HOUR. AREA
   VWP DATA INDICATE MODEST LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR OF
   15-20 KT. WITH FLOW NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE UNTIL
   THIS EVENING...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
   MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINING THE AMPLITUDE/LONGEVITY OF SUPERCELLS.
   STILL...AMIDST MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 16-18 G/KG PER REGIONAL
   RAOBS...LOCALLY WET MICROBURSTS AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO ARE WITHIN
   THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34619046 34428928 33708851 32468810 31678843 31208926
               30848995 30819131 31379268 32059341 32599341 33699245
               34409141 34619046 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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