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Mesoscale Discussion 1798
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1798
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517...

   VALID 022014Z - 022145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATEST SEVERE RISK WITHIN WW 517 WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE
   OUT OF A LINE SEGMENT SW OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. FARTHER
   E...STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS E OF WW 517 INTO PARTS OF SW IND WITH A
   GENERALLY MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...THAT MIGHT RENDER A
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE BEYOND 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...SHORT-LINE SEGMENT HAD RECENTLY CONSOLIDATED AND
   ACCELERATED ACROSS FRANKLIN/CRAWFORD COUNTY MO WITHIN THE PORTION OF
   THE LINE THAT IS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN FLOW. ALTHOUGH STL
   VWP DATA IS NOISY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ALONG/N OF THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CENTERED FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY MO TO FAYETTE
   COUNTY IL AS OF 20Z. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
   LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WINDS.

   FARTHER E...LEAD CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPROACHING THE WABASH VALLEY IS
   EVOLVING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RICH GULF MOISTURE PLUME AND THE
   FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS. THE CHARACTER OF THIS CONVECTION
   HAS NOT APPEARED OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. BUT WITH
   RELATIVELY DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH TEMPERATURES
   HAVING WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S...STRONG WIND GUSTS
   CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

   ..GRAMS/GLEASON/MEAD.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37829134 38439115 38759069 39088903 39418795 39648721
               39628670 39498629 39278608 38758606 38388633 37828763
               37448905 37418951 36979135 37829134 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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