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Mesoscale Discussion 1799
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-SRN-SWRN MO / FAR SERN KS / NWRN-WRN AR / ERN
   OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516...

   VALID 022016Z - 022115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUST
   RISK WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A MIX MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND
   ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS AFFECTS MAINLY PORTIONS OF ERN
   OK...WRN AND NWRN AR...AND PERHAPS FAR SWRN AND FAR S-CNTRL MO. 
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERABLY LESS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND SWRN
   MO.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY AT 2015Z SHOWS SCATTERED TO
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH ARE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
   SEVERAL STORMS EXHIBITING WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURE HAVE BEEN NOTED
   ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF OK AND NWRN AR.  THE AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY NEAR
   AND DOWNSTREAM OF THESE STORMS HAS LARGELY BEEN UNDISTURBED BY PRIOR
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
   EFFECTS.  AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT EWD OVER THE
   PLAINS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR SHOULD MAXIMIZE AND PROMOTE AN ORGANIZED THREAT FOR ISOLD
   SEVERE STORMS.  FARTHER N...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OLD FRONTAL
   ZONE INVOF THE NWRN AR/SWRN MO BORDER REGION WITH AN ARCING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
   LOCATED OVER THE OZARKS.  S OF THE BOUNDARY A MOIST/MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
   HAIL/LOCALIZED DMGG WIND THREAT.  THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
   EARLIER DAY CLOUD COVER/RAIN INTO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
   LIKELY LIMIT STORM INTENSITY AND THE PROSPECTS FOR ISOLD SEVERE AS
   STORMS MOVE EWD/NEWD INTO SRN-CNTRL MO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS.

   ..SMITH.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...
   OUN...

   LAT...LON   38259277 38259130 36099298 33939466 33959605 33939744
               36099584 38259426 38259277 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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