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Mesoscale Discussion 1800
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N/CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518...

   VALID 022151Z - 022245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LINE OF SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS N TX WITH THE
   SVR THREAT PERSISTING. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH THIS LINE IS SVR
   WINDS...SOME POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 65 KT. FARTHER S...UPSCALE
   GROWTH OF ONGOING MULTI-CELLULAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH A
   RESULTANT SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE METROPLEX
   HAVE MEASURED WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 60 KT AS THE LINE OF STORMS
   MOVED THROUGH. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS PRESSURE FALLS GREATER THAN
   2 MB IN 2 HOURS AHEAD OF THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...SLIGHT BACKING IN
   THE WINDS WAS NOTED AT CRS...LNC AND TRL. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST SOME
   LARGER-SCALE ORGANIZATION ONGOING WITH THIS LINE. 

   OVERALL DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN
   THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MLCAPE
   ESTIMATED NEAR 2000 J PER KG. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LINE TO
   CONTINUE EWD WITH PERHAPS SOME ACCELERATION. AS SUCH...DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN
   EXCESS OF 65 KT POSSIBLE. 

   FARTHER S /ACROSS CNTRL TX/...SWLY SURFACE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   WEAK CONVERGE ALONG COLD FRONT WITH TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
   MULTI-CELLULAR. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS
   WAS NOTED AT GTO AND HLR. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE LINE TO INCREASE WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN STORM
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE CONNECTED
   TO THE ACTIVITY IN N TX. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE ONGOING
   MULTI-CELL STORMS WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE LINE CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES EWD.

   ..MOSIER.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30729923 33989727 33959449 30729654 30729923 

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Page last modified: October 02, 2014
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