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Mesoscale Discussion 1801
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0525 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA/AR/CENTRAL AND NRN MS/WRN TN/WRN KY/SERN
   MO/SRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 022225Z - 030000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
   EAST AS A DEVELOPING QLCS ADVANCES EWD INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
   AR/NRN LA AND SRN PARTS OF MO INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS REGION. 
   A NEW WW WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE AFFECTED WFOS FROM NRN LA/AR
   TO SERN MO/WRN KY.  MEANWHILE...ONGOING STORMS FROM MS TO FAR NERN
   AR/ADJACENT WRN TN WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT THROUGH 00Z.  THEREAFTER...CONCERN EXISTS FOR AN INCREASED
   TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MID-EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGESTED A CORRIDOR OF DEEP
   LAYER ASCENT HAD BEGUN TO OVERTAKE THE EASTWARD-MOVING LINE OF
   TSTMS...WHICH EXTEND FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX THROUGH ERN OK TO
   SWRN-CENTRAL MO.  TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED COLD-POOL
   MERGERS WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WERE COALESCING AS LINEAR
   FORCING BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT FACTOR FOR STORMS INTO THE
   EVENING...WITH THE ENEWD TRACK OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
   MEANWHILE...A W/NWWD MOVING COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM
   ONGOING AND EARLIER SPLITTING STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...EXTENDED FROM NWRN LA /EAST OF SHV/ NWD INTO SWRN AR AND
   THEN NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL AR NEAR LIT TO NERN AR/WRN TN INVOF THE
   ONGOING STORMS.  ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES IN
   THE WAKE OF THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATED RISING TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS LIKELY IN
   RESPONSE TO MASS FIELDS/ATMOSPHERIC ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE APPROACH OF
   THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

   A FURTHER INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...WITHIN A RATHER
   MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  WHILE DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH ANY STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
   EWD MOVING QLCS...A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
   LOWER TN VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT THROUGH
   THE EVENING.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32439450 34179408 35779290 36869069 37598865 37698776
               35198825 33998942 32569047 32249162 32439450 

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Page last modified: October 03, 2014
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