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Mesoscale Discussion 1802
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1802
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0600 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517...

   VALID 022300Z - 030030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING BUT STRONG TO
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
   WW 517.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS E-CNTRL MO AND CNTRL IL
   REVEALS LOOSELY ORGANIZED...MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION WITH UPDRAFT
   INTENSIFICATION RESULTANT FROM CELL MERGERS AS THE PRIMARY SVR
   THREAT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS REYNOLDS COUNTY MO WHERE A
   BOWING SEGMENT HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
   INTENSIFICATION. 

   MULTI-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
   FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
   REACHES WRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. GIVEN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER
   THE AREA...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WHEN THE LINE OF
   STORMS BEGINS MOVING THROUGH. THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY BE OFFSET
   BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND A RESULTANT INCREASE IN STORM
   ORGANIZATION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE OVERALL SVR THREAT WILL
   BE ISOLATED...OWING PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT STORM
   MERGERS MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS.

   ..MOSIER/PETERS.. 10/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36969135 38569135 39438770 37858766 36969135 

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