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Mesoscale Discussion 1803
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST TX INTO CENTRAL LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 030033Z - 030130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED FOR
   PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF WEAK REFLECTIVITY/CU IN SOUTHEAST TO EAST
   CENTRAL TX.  THIS BAND WAS DETECTED ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
   ZONE EXTENDING FROM LIVE OAK COUNTY NNEWD THROUGH GONZALES AND
   BASTROP COUNTIES.  MEANWHILE...THE MILAM AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES
   PORTION OF THIS SAME BOUNDARY HAS HAD GREATER WNWWD MOVEMENT DUE TO
   A NWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER STORM IN FAYETTE
   COUNTY TX.  RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
   EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX SWWD TO THE SRN PORTION OF WW 518.  

   THE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WHILE STRENGTHENING WSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS/EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TX/LA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS
   TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD FOR
   ORGANIZED STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.  THE SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EASTERN
   PART OF THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CWA AND PARTS OF THE HOUSTON CWA
   THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
   INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORTING SOME
   TORNADO THREAT...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z 4 KM WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL EACH SHOWING
   QLCS/BOWING STRUCTURES THROUGH 07-09Z.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   32329446 32189185 31429191 30199249 29839404 29269554
               28979636 29249725 29889802 30169789 30469773 31229658
               32189500 32329446 

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Page last modified: October 03, 2014
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