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Mesoscale Discussion 1804
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX...FAR NRN LA...AR...SE MO...FAR SW
   KY...FAR WRN TN...FAR NW MS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 519...

   VALID 030035Z - 030230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 519 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ALL SVR HAZARDS CONTINUES ACROSS TOR WATCH 519.
   PRIMARY THREAT IS CURRENTLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THREAT FOR
   TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE INCREASING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.

   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SE
   MO SWD THROUGH AR THEN SWWD INTO CNTRL TX. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
   SUGGESTS THE MOST PROMINENT DAMAGING-WIND THREAT EXISTS ACROSS AR
   WHERE SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS EXIST. FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM
   ACROSS AR IS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KT. ACTIVITY NEAR CONWAY COUNTY HAS
   RECENTLY SURGED FORWARD. DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   ADDITIONALLY...AREA VAD PROFILES SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING
   TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
   INCREASE WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF VORTICES
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.

   ..MOSIER.. 10/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   SHV...

   LAT...LON   32659536 37459100 37458698 32639160 32659536 

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Page last modified: October 03, 2014
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