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Mesoscale Discussion 1805
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1805
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0904 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SERN MO THROUGH SRN IL TO SWRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517...

   VALID 030204Z - 030400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAINS THE PRIMARY
   THREAT ACROSS PART OF SERN MO THROUGH SRN IL...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
   A PORTION OF WW 517 IN PAH COUNTY WARNING AREA TO BE EXTENDED
   TEMPORALLY UNTIL 04Z.  FARTHER EAST INTO SWRN INDIANA...A MORE
   STABLE ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
   DIMINISH AS THE QLCS REACHES THIS REGION AFTER 04-05Z.

   DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE NRN EXTENT OF GREATER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED OVER SRN IL WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A
   SLOWER STABILIZATION PROCESS...DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING...WITH MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   35-40 KT WITH VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO QLCS SHOULD SUSTAIN STORM
   ORGANIZATION UNTIL THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERGOES EVENTUAL STABILIZATION
   AND/OR THE QLCS MOVES EAST INTO AN AREA OF GREATER STABILITY EAST OF
   SRN IL.

   ..PETERS.. 10/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38398905 38558829 38598718 38078723 37898767 37508849
               37388906 37139020 38398905 

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Page last modified: October 03, 2014
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