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Mesoscale Discussion 1806
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1806
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0926 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...FAR NE LA...NRN MS...WRN TN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 519...

   VALID 030226Z - 030430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 519 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL/BRIEF TORNADOES WILL
   PERSIST ACROSS WW 519. A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS
   THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A SURGE IN THE LINE
   ACROSS MONROE....ARKANSAS...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WITH ESTIMATED
   STORM MOTION OVER 50 KT. AT THAT SPEED...THIS PORTION OF THE LINE IS
   EXPECTED TO REACH THE ERN EXTENT OF WW 519 AROUND 0330Z. LZK RADAR
   IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED NUMEROUS MESO-VORTICES WITHIN THIS PORTION OF
   THE LINE WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...SOME
   POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 65 KT...AND SMALL/BRIEF TORNADOES. 

   OTHER PORTIONS OF THE LINE ACROSS NE AR AND SE AR/N-CNTRL LA ARE
   ALSO STRONG TO SVR. NRN PORTION /NE AR/ OF THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
   AIRMASS. ADDITIONALLY...WEAKENING OF THIS PORTION OF THE LINE WILL
   BE HASTENED AS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE LINE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
   AND INTERCEPTS THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL
   REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE LINE /SE AR AND N-CNTRL
   LA/ WITH THE SVR THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN WW 519 UNTIL
   AROUND 0500Z.

   ..MOSIER.. 10/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   35219204 36429104 36238839 34488792 31799056 33009255
               35219204 

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Page last modified: October 03, 2014
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