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Mesoscale Discussion 1807
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL...EAST AND SOUTHEAST TX/CENTRAL AND SRN
   LA/FAR SRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520...

   VALID 030405Z - 030500Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
   THE VALID PORTION OF WW 520.  A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
   LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THIS WATCH TO INCLUDE FAR SERN TX INTO THE
   REST OF CENTRAL AND SRN LA...AND A SMALL PART OF SRN MS.

   COUNTIES AND PARISHES IN THE WAKE OF THE QLCS CAN BE CANCELLED WITH
   THE PASSAGE OF THESE STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...AT 04Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SRN EXTENT OF
   A WELL-DEFINED E/SEWD MOVING QLCS EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN AR THROUGH
   NRN LA INTO EAST-CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.  TRENDS SUGGEST
   SECTIONS OF THIS LINE FROM WALKER TO ANGELINA COUNTIES TX ARE MOVING
   ESEWD AROUND 40 KT....WHILE THE NRN LA PORTION IS TRACKING TO THE
   SOUTHEAST AT 35 KT.  THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF WW 520 INTO
   CENTRAL/SRN LA...ADJACENT SRN MS AND SERN TX REMAINS VERY MOIST AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SPEED OF THE QLCS
   SUGGESTING THE THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIT WW 520 BY
   05Z.  GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING STORM ORGANIZATION WITH EPISODIC FASTER FORWARD
   MOVEMENT OF THE LINE AT TIMES...A NEW WW WILL BE WARRANTED TO THE
   EAST OF WW 520.

   FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF WW 520...A SLOWER
   MOVEMENT /AROUND 30 KT/ OF THE LINE MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSTMS TO PERSIST...REACHING
   THE MIDDLE TX COAST AFTER 06Z WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28829680 28989781 29509829 29829839 30479851 30429827
               30839775 30799750 30489712 30589678 31029599 31549554
               31539514 31929471 32339420 32339338 32299226 32219191
               31449189 31239178 31279120 31229048 31009029 30269090
               29909177 29819219 29609244 29489267 29229287 29329355
               29069466 28799545 28829680 

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Page last modified: October 03, 2014
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