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Mesoscale Discussion 1808
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1808
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA/WRN...CENTRAL AND NRN MS...NWRN AL...WRN
   AND MIDDLE TN...AND WRN KY

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 519...521...

   VALID 030450Z - 030645Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 519...521...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT GUSTS...A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES PERSISTS ACROSS WW 521 AND THE NRN PART OF WW
   519.  AS STORMS EXIT THE NRN PART OF WW 521 BETWEEN 06-07Z...A MORE
   STABLE ENVIRONMENT INTO MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD
   EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A NEW WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY...WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINED THE
   GREATEST WITH SWD EXTENT INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS AND LA.  ALTHOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS WEAKER ACROSS NRN MS...WRN TN AND WRN KY...STRONGER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS LIMITING
   THERMODYNAMIC FACTOR THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z.  AND...STRONG 0-1 KM SRH
   /300-400 M2 PER S2/ PER GWX AND HPX VADS WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY FROM
   NRN MS TO WRN KY.

   THE PORTION OF THE QLCS MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS WAS TRACKING
   ESEWD AT 30-35 KT.  GIVEN STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS
   REGION...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR AN EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADO
   THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF WW 521.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...
   LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31329218 32709174 34508995 35808951 36508938 37358841
               37378729 36528657 36208628 35588620 34698672 34118791
               33558831 32868849 32178953 31389043 31329218 

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Page last modified: October 03, 2014
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