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Mesoscale Discussion 1809
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN...S CNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030711Z - 030915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE OVERSPREADING THE REGION MAY CONTINUE TO BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A
   TORNADO.  HOWEVER...WITH SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
   LINE APPEARING UNLIKELY...AND WEAKENING TRENDS EXPECTED BY OR
   SHORTLY AFTER 09-11Z...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE MOST VIGOROUS LINGERING SEGMENT OF THE ONGOING
   EASTWARD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE IS IN THE PROCESS OF PROGRESSING
   NORTHEAST AND EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 521...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
   KENTUCKY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.  THIS ACTIVITY
   APPEARS TO CORRESPOND WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   NOW BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...TOWARD
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  

   AIDED BY INFLOW OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR /WITH CAPE PROBABLY ON THE
   ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J PER KG/ STORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING
   STRENGTH...AND THIS COULD PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS AND
   EAST OF THE BOWLING GREEN KY...NASHVILLE TN AND HUNTSVILLE AL AREAS.
    HOWEVER...BEYOND THE 09-11Z TIME FRAME...IT APPEARS THE SUPPORTING
   FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS
   KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE...AND THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION THE
   SQUALL LINE WILL INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF BETTER
   MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY.  SO SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.  HOWEVER...UNTIL ACTIVITY
   WEAKENS...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850
   JET CORE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY MAY CONTINUE
   TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 10/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35888678 36738629 37188583 37418506 37278435 36428460
               33948613 33528745 33748768 34278735 35018706 35888678 

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Page last modified: October 03, 2014
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