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Mesoscale Discussion 1810
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1017 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE / EXTREME SERN GA / SWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 031517Z - 031645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE WILL PROBABLY YIELD LOCALIZED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF MARGINAL DAMAGE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC DATA THIS MORNING SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL
   SQUALL LINE OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EXTENDING NEWD INTO PORTIONS
   OF NERN GA.  SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS HAS
   BEEN HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE SRN HALF OF THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SWRN GA. 
   MODIFYING THE 12Z TLH RAOB FOR LOWER 80S TEMPS AND MID 70S DEWPOINTS
   YIELDS AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND MODERATE BUOYANCY...DESPITE
   MARGINAL TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.  FLOW SAMPLED IN THE LOWEST 6 KM
   BY THE TLH RAOB SHOWED WAS GENERALLY WEAK /25 KT OR BELOW/ WITHIN A
   VEERING WIND PROFILE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
   TO ONLY LOOSELY-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITHIN THE LARGER SQUALL
   LINE STRUCTURE.  DUE TO THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW AREAS
   WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE MAY POSE AREAS OF ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT WINDS
   CAPABLE OF POCKETS MARGINAL DAMAGE GOING FORWARD INTO THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON AS THE AREA TO THE E OF THE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO
   HEAT/DESTABILIZE.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 10/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31648506 32288417 31118400 30038528 30178593 30388631
               31118606 31648506 

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Page last modified: October 03, 2014
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