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Mesoscale Discussion 1811
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0415 PM CDT FRI OCT 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032115Z - 032215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW WEAK MINI SUPERCELLS WILL POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF
   AN ISOLD DMGG WIND RISK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION LIMITS THIS THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...21Z KCAE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
   SHALLOW DISCRETE STORMS EXHIBITING WEAK ROTATION OVER PARTS OF THE
   SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY INTO CNTRL SC.  SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THIS
   ACTIVITY WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS
   IN THE LOWER 70S.  DESPITE THE EARLIER AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE BAND
   OVER THIS REGION TEMPERING THE MAGNITUDE OF
   DESTABILIZATION...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG 0-1 KM SRH /100-150 M2 PER S2
   ACCORDING TO THE KCAE VAD/ WILL AID IN STORM-SCALE ROTATION WITH THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS /I.E.
   MINI SUPERCELLS/ WILL BE A DMGG WIND THREAT AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY
   PROBABLY WEAKENS AS NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SLOWLY
   COMMENCES.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 10/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   33738203 34428115 34508012 33967964 33248079 33068144
               33268192 33738203 

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Page last modified: October 03, 2014
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