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Mesoscale Discussion 1812
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1812
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK INTO WRN ARKANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 060315Z - 060515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY
   AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH ECNTRL AND ERN OK INTO WRN ARKANSAS
   THIS EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL AS WELL AS A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING INTO THE
   EARLY MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE OF ANY LARGE HAIL REPORTS IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
   ACROSS CNTRL OK THROUGH NCNTRL ARKANSAS. SOUTH OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
   50S F ABOVE THE STABLE SFC LAYER IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MODEST SLY
   LLJ. A PLUME OF 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS OVERSPREAD THE
   MOIST AXIS /AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z RAOB DATA/ WITH MUCAPE FROM
   500-1000 J/KG. STORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE AS ZONE OF MID-LEVEL
   ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SEWD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
   THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS OK AND ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE
   CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL
   UPDRAFT ROTATION. STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE THE STABILIZING
   SFC LAYER...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35519689 36129487 35919306 35409246 34569291 34139416
               34209559 34099743 34559780 35519689 

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Page last modified: October 06, 2014
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