Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1813
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1813 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT S CNTRL OK/NWRN
   LOUISIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061004Z - 061130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE IN
   STRONGER STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL OK...NORTH CENTRAL AND
   NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE 11-13Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE DIMINISHING. 
   DUE TO THE SHORT TIME FRAME AND THE MOSTLY MARGINAL/LOCALIZED NATURE
   OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF A SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
   TO THE SOUTH OF PARIS TX APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED AS ACTIVITY
   ENCOUNTERED INFLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MORE
   UNSTABLE AIR ON A 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  BENEATH
   MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND IN THE PRESENCE OF
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING MOSTLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS INTO THE
   11-13Z TIME FRAME.  THEREAFTER...THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT
   WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL LEAD TO DIMINISH TRENDS IN
   STORM INTENSITIES.

   SIMILAR TRENDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT /TO
   THE WEST NORTHWEST/ ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY NOW
   ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 10/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   31919519 32779651 33299709 33759742 34669755 33569621
               33089560 33129464 32679386 31839388 31919519 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 06, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities