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Mesoscale Discussion 1814
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0931 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX...LA...MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 061431Z - 061630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORM OF A DECAYING
   SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 30-35 KT. A
   WATCH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING
   AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GULF COAST.

   DISCUSSION...MATURE QLCS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AT 30-35 KT.
   IF THIS SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN INTEGRITY LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WILL TAKE
   IT TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING AND OFF THE GULF
   COAST BETWEEN HOUSTON AND SABINE PASS AROUND NOON. CONVECTIVE
   CHARACTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS BEEN NEARLY
   STEADY-STATE. RECENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...DO SUGGEST A GRADUAL DEMISE
   IN STORM INTENSITY WITH DOWNWARD TENDENCIES IN LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
   REFLECTIVITY...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN COLD IR CLOUD-TOP TEMPS.
   DEEP CONVECTION HAS SPREAD SOUTH OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW BUT
   MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON A
   MODESTLY AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT LIES ALONG THE GULF
   COAST. WHILE LOCALIZED GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KT...ESPECIALLY IF
   STORMS CAN MAINTAIN LINEAR CHARACTER AND DEVELOP INTO GREATER
   INSTABILITY...CURRENT SPEED AND CHARACTER OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT
   SUGGEST A VIABLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND HAZARD...AT LEAST IN THE
   SHORT-TERM.

   ..CARBIN/HART.. 10/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29869043 29329157 29189386 29569491 29909556 31259563
               31329546 31139476 31209334 31929279 32059256 31769102
               31389039 29869043 

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Page last modified: October 06, 2014
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