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Mesoscale Discussion 1816
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TN...MS...AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 062028Z - 062130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL APPEAR
   POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY
   BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   WITH A WATCH POSSIBLE IF AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION
   IS NOTED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONGER DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE TN
   VALLEY IN RECENT HOURS AS CI CANOPY AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
   EARLIER CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR THE AREA. SOMEWHAT MOIST
   SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED HEATING MAY BOOST MLCAPE
   ABOVE 1000 J/KG AS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG WEAK RESIDUAL
   BOUNDARY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS. STRONGER MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...HEIGHT FALLS...AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BRUSH THE REGION AS
   A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. THESE INFLUENCES MAY
   ACT TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
   PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR
   SPLITTING CELLS POSSIBLE. GENERALLY WEAK AND VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD TEMPER ANY TORNADO THREAT BUT A COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED CELLS
   COULD POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL. ACTIVITY TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH A WATCH POSSIBLE IF THESE
   TRENDS BECOME MORE EVIDENT.

   ..CARBIN/HART.. 10/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34908846 35768719 35628601 34468598 33808697 33378854
               34188935 34908846 

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Page last modified: October 06, 2014
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