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Mesoscale Discussion 1817
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0520 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ARKANSAS...NWRN MS AND WRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 062220Z - 070015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
   OVER NCNTRL THROUGH CNTRL ARKANSAS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL
   POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AND MAY EVENTUALLY
   MOVE INTO NWRN MS AND WRN TN LATER THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NERN OK THROUGH NRN ARKANSAS INTO NWRN
   TN. ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH
   1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS REGION HAS BEEN WITHIN TEMPORARY
   MID-UPPER SUBSIDENCE MUCH OF THE DAY IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING
   MID-LEVEL CONVECTION OVER WRN ARKANSAS...AND THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
   TO BE IN DEVELOPING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET SHIFTING SEWD
   THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION. AS THIS ZONE
   OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVERTAKES THE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND
   JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT...STORMS MAY UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 45-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE
   MAIN THREATS. 

   STRONGER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SEWD ADVANCING UPPER JET WILL
   REMAIN NORTH OF WARM SECTOR...SO THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING HOW MANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35489376 35699125 35988915 35258891 34359018 33719270
               34509406 35489376 

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Page last modified: October 07, 2014
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