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Mesoscale Discussion 1818
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0528 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KY...SWRN WV...FAR SW VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062228Z - 070000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IN ERN KY WILL CONTINUE EWD WHILE WEAKENING.
   SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE OVERALL SVR
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO SEPARATE LINE OF TSTMS
   MOVING ACROSS FAR ERN KY INTO SWRN WV AND FAR SW VA. THIS ACTIVITY
   IS LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS
   IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AND
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT FARTHER NW
   /ACROSS IND AND IL/...LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY POOR AND INSTABILITY
   WEAK. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STORM
   INTENSIFICATION. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG BULK SHEAR
   WILL LIKELY AID IN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CURRENT TSTM ACTIVITY FOR
   THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
   BUT THE WEAKENING TREND NOTED ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE.

   ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 10/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   38308260 38878211 38648153 38128108 37368102 36718174
               36708283 38308260 

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Page last modified: October 07, 2014
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