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Mesoscale Discussion 1819
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0636 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062336Z - 070100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
   PROBABLE THROUGH 02-03Z. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF FUTURE
   SEVERE EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE FROM NERN
   MS THROUGH NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN WITHIN WHAT APPEARS TO BE SRN EXTENT
   OF ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. MODEST /500-1000 J/KG/ MLCAPE
   AND 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MID-LEVEL
   UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE
   OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS STORM SPLITS
   REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
   PRIMARILY 1-1.5 INCH HAIL. THIS EVENT APPEARS AT OR JUST PAST PEAK
   INTENSITY. GIVEN ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...TENDENCY FOR DEEPER
   ASCENT TO SHIFT EAST OF AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AS WELL AS THE
   EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF FUTURE HAIL EVENTS...A WW DOES
   NOT APPEAR JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME. AN OVERALL GRADUAL WEAKENING
   TREND SHOULD BEGIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35108853 36378660 36498518 35568473 34528564 34258736
               34018899 35108853 

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Page last modified: October 07, 2014
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