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Mesoscale Discussion 1820
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0657 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL KY...FAR SE INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062357Z - 070100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING NEWD ALONG THE INDIANA/KY BORDER
   MAY RESULT IN SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE SVR
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN STORM
   STRENGTH WITHIN THE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING NEWD ALONG THE CNTRL
   IND/KY BORDER. THIS INCREASE IN STRENGTH WAS MOST PREVALENT IN
   STORMS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE CLUSTER /HOPKINS...MCLEAN...AND
   OHIO COUNTIES IN KY/. THIS IS A LIKELY A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH
   MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. 

   IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HAS REMAINED LARGELY FREE OF CONVECTION
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IS CURRENTLY CHARACTERIZED BY A LOCAL MAXIMUM
   IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINT OF 57 DEG F AT FFT AT 23Z/. WHILE
   THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL REDUCE INSTABILITY...STRONG FORCING
   FOR ASCENT AND ROBUST BULK SHEAR WILL FAVOR STORM PERSISTENCE.
   ADDITIONALLY...INTERACTIONS WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
   RESULT IN BRIEF STORM INTENSIFICATION. SOME HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS BUT THE OVERALL SVR THREAT
   IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

   ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 10/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37618730 38278691 38608656 38908574 39028519 39048469
               38778409 38518390 38018422 37558487 37278551 37088721
               37618730 

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Page last modified: October 07, 2014
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