Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1821
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1821 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1821
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL/SERN MO...NERN AR...ADJACENT WRN
   TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 070852Z - 071015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS WITH EVOLVING STORMS
   APPEARS LOW...BUT LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT LEAST
   INTO THE 11-13Z TIME FRAME.  A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NORTH THROUGH
   SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS MO...APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED
   BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...LARGELY DUE
   TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN BY A 40-50 KT WESTERLY 850 MB
   SPEED MAXIMA.  THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE
   WILL NOSE FROM SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TOWARD WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
   TENNESSEE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE 11-13Z TIME
   FRAME.

   UNTIL THIS OCCURS.../IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR/...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY COOL
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING WEAK TO MODESTLY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTING CAPE LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 1000
   J/KG...MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED STRONGEST CELLS.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
   ACTIVITY COULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER ACROSS
   PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO
   WESTERN TENNESSEE.  HOWEVER...WITH ANY DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD
   POOL...THE RISK FOR WIND GUSTS REACHING SEVERE LIMITS SEEMS LIKELY
   TO REMAIN LOW...OR AT LEAST SHORTLY-LIVED...DUE TO THE WEAKENING
   FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND THE RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE DOWNSTREAM
   BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..KERR/KERR.. 10/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37029185 37079030 36468913 35668911 35148974 35509100
               36229205 37029185 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 07, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities