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Mesoscale Discussion 1822
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
   KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 071720Z - 071915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE RISK
   FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IMPINGING ON THE IL/INDIANA BORDER. RELATED
   ASCENT IS ENCOURAGING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION SW OF BLOOMINGTON
   INDIANA...WHICH HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF SUPERCELLULAR
   CHARACTERISTICS. THIS STORM LIES ALONG A NW/SE-ORIENTED WAVY SFC
   WARM FRONT...WHOSE BAROCLINICITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY CROSS-BOUNDARY
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OWING TO INSOLATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
   OH VALLEY. AS THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH
   LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
   OVERSPREAD THE AREA CONCURRENT WITH A DIURNALLY ENHANCED UPTICK IN
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

   DESPITE MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE S OF THE WARM FRONT
   CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F...COLD AIR ALOFT -- E.G.
   H5 TEMP AROUND -19C PER WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB -- WILL AMPLIFY
   BUOYANCY ESPECIALLY S OF THE WARM FRONT. AND...WITH 50-70 KT
   MID-LEVEL WLYS SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
   SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH SVR
   HAIL/WIND. FURTHERMORE...A 35-50-KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS
   INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. POLEWARD MASS FLUXES WILL
   ENCOURAGE NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING
   THE SVR-TSTM/TORNADO RISK TO EXTEND AS FAR N AS SRN SECTIONS OF
   CNTRL/E-CNTRL OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON -- MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
   DAYTON TO COLUMBUS TO ZANESVILLE.

   ..COHEN/DARROW.. 10/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   37828642 39028643 39648309 39608135 38348155 37648233
               37378546 37828642 

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Page last modified: October 07, 2014
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