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Mesoscale Discussion 1823
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MS...NRN AL...SRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071759Z - 072000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY
   REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM OR
   TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SUBTLE WARM ADVECTION OVER A RESIDUAL CONVECTIVELY
   ENHANCED COOL DOME IS SUSTAINING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TN. DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST MIDDLE
   60S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION. AS
   EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS EXTEND TOWARD THE SFC IN RESPONSE TO
   SFC-LAYER HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES REACH AROUND 500-1000
   J/KG...STORMS COULD INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   AREA. AND...WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ON THE S SIDE OF A
   CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND OF FAST MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW COVERING
   PORTIONS OF THE N-CNTRL/NERN STATES...A FEW SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
   STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS/HAIL
   MAY OCCUR...AND AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   HOWEVER...PLAN VIEW DEPICTIONS OF VWP DATA AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
   SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AND...WITH THE
   ABSENCE OF STRONGER BUOYANCY...A GREATER SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

   ..COHEN/DARROW.. 10/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34328842 34758957 35208890 35248608 34418594 34328842 

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Page last modified: October 07, 2014
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