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Mesoscale Discussion 1824
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1824
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL IL...WRN/NRN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071844Z - 072045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...AREAS OF INSOLATION AMIDST MIDDLE 50S SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
   SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
   ANALYZED FROM SERN WI TO W-CNTRL IL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
   PROGRESSING EWD. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND PLAN-VIEW DEPICTIONS OF VWP
   DATA INDICATE VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA.
   HOWEVER...WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION -- E.G.
   H5 TEMPS AROUND -20 TO -16C -- DIURNALLY DEEPENING PBL CIRCULATIONS
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
   REGION. THE PRESENCE OF 35-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE COLD
   AIR ALOFT...SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR...AND GUSTY SFC WINDS MAY ALSO
   OCCUR. THE LACK OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY AND LACK OF STRONGER
   DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL. A
   NOTABLE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERLYING THE REGION PER WATER VAPOR
   LOOPS MAY PROVE HOSTILE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/DEEP UPDRAFTS.

   ..COHEN/DARROW.. 10/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39818957 40568875 41568628 40698619 39318717 39328887
               39818957 

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Page last modified: October 07, 2014
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