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Mesoscale Discussion 1825
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN KY AND FAR SRN OH

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523...

   VALID 071950Z - 072045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
   KY AND FAR SRN OH IN THE SHORT TERM.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION NEAR AND S OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH A MIX
   OF QLCS/SUPERCELL MODES EVOLVING OVER N-CNTRL KY. THE VWPS AT LVX
   AND JKL INDICATE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SRH -- OVER 300 M2/S2 IN THE 0-1-KM
   LAYER -- WHICH WILL FAVOR A TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THE ONGOING
   CONVECTION THAT WILL SPREAD EWD TO SEWD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   A SVR/TORNADO RISK TO BUILD N OF THE OH RIVER AS POLEWARD MOISTURE
   FLUXES -- SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S -- ALLOW FOR MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY TO EXTEND INTO THE LOWER SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY.

   ..COHEN.. 10/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   38058464 38538446 38878323 38698268 38158278 37918349
               38058464 

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Page last modified: October 07, 2014
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