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Mesoscale Discussion 1826
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN INDIANA AND WRN OHIO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072025Z - 072230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION
   INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
   SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...THE NORTHERN INDIANA AND INDIANAPOLIS VWPS SAMPLE 40-60
   KT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS/WNWLYS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER SUFFICIENT
   DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO
   SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY IS EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES -- E.G. H5 TEMPS BETWEEN -21C AND
   -17C -- OVERLYING MODEST SFC HEATING INDUCED BY POCKETS OF
   INSOLATION BEHIND EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT CROSSED THE REGION.
   HOWEVER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
   50S...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL -- I.E. MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB
   500 J/KG. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY
   SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE DEPICTED BY 1-KM-AGL PLAN VIEW DEPICTIONS OF VWP DATA
   AND SFC OBSERVATIONS...AND WITHOUT STRONGER BUOYANCY...A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..COHEN/DARROW.. 10/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   39718661 41538577 41548408 40248447 39608557 39718661 

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Page last modified: October 07, 2014
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