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Mesoscale Discussion 1827
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN OHIO...WRN WEST
   VIRGINIA...CNTRL/ERN KENTUCKY...SERN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523...

   VALID 072054Z - 072230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS INCLUDING TORNADOES CONTINUES
   ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 523...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE
   SHORT-TERM ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN OHIO...FAR WRN WV...AND ERN KY.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS INCLUDING QLCS SEGMENTS
   AND SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD/ESEWD NEAR AND S OF THE OHIO
   RIVER. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A RISK FOR DMGG
   WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES AS IT CROSSES ERN KY
   INTO WRN WV. NARROW/ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY CORES BUILDING NWD INTO
   THE LOWER SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY IN OHIO SUGGEST SOME DESTABILIZATION
   ONGOING INTO S-CNTRL/SERN OH...WHERE THE RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES
   MAY EXIST IN A STRONGLY-VERTICALLY-SHEARED/LOW-BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT.
   THE JKL VWP INDICATES VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTING 0-1-KM
   SRH IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2 ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG/CURVED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MINIMAL BUOYANCY...THIS HODOGRAPH
   AND THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY NOTABLY BOLSTER THE TORNADO
   POTENTIAL -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN KY.

   THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BACKBUILD TOWARD SRN
   INDIANA ALONG A CONVERGENCE-AXIS-MANIFESTED CU LINE EXTENDING W/E
   THROUGH THE LOUISVILLE AREA. AND...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   ENHANCING BUOYANCY...SOME SVR-TSTM RISK MAY ENSUE TO THE W OF THE
   ONGOING STRONGEST STORMS INTO CNTRL KY/SRN INDIANA DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS.

   ..COHEN.. 10/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   36678597 38768667 39988156 37878088 36678597 

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Page last modified: October 07, 2014
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