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Mesoscale Discussion 1828
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN WV AND SWRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072212Z - 072345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SWRN WV THROUGH ERN
   KY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY APPROACH THE ERN FRINGE OF WW 523 NEXT
   COUPLE HOURS. THIS TORNADO WATCH CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED A BIT
   FARTHER EAST IF NECESSARY. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
   WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS OF ERN WV...SO AN
   ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS FROM ERN KY THROUGH EXTREME SWRN WV
   CONTINUE EAST AND WILL APPROACH THE ERN BORDER OF WW 523 WITHIN THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY
   THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LIMITED INSTABILITY
   OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S. WHILE
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS THE ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT
   PROGRESSES EAST...OVERALL INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A
   GRADUAL DECREASE. SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
   TORNADOES MAY EXIST A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OF WW 523 AND A FEW
   COUNTIES CAN BE ADDED TO THIS WW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
   HOWEVER...SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE CURRENT
   TORNADO WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A NEW WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

   LAT...LON   37108219 38158112 39678071 39437910 37507971 36748154
               37108219 

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Page last modified: October 07, 2014
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