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Mesoscale Discussion 1829
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL THROUGH NERN KY INTO SWRN WV

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523...

   VALID 072359Z - 080100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES WILL PROBABLY EXTEND BEYOND WW EXPIRATION TIME OF 01Z BY A
   COUPLE OF HOURS OVER NCNTRL THROUGH NERN KY. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT
   IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH FOR A NEW WW ISSUANCE...WW
   523 CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR A SHORT DURATION
   SEVERE EVENT BEYOND 01Z.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER NCNTRL
   THROUGH NERN KY JUST NORTH OF A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY
   THAT HAS BEEN LAID OUT BY EARLIER STORMS. MESOSCALE LIFT RESULTING
   FROM THE INTERACTION OF WLY 30-40 KT 850 MB WINDS WITH THIS BOUNDARY
   HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PAST HOUR.
   THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG NRN FRINGE OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
   WHERE VERY STRONG WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-60 KT/ WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. PRIMARY ZONE OF THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN OVER NRN KY INTO SWRN WV IN VICINITY OF
   THE BOUNDARY. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER WITH
   TIME...RESULTING IN SOME REDUCTION IN SIZE OF 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS.
   NEVERTHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
   WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BEGIN A DECREASING TREND AFTER 03Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

   ..DIAL.. 10/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   38778548 38578329 38558193 38098145 37688179 37338315
               37288513 37678611 38438618 38778548 

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Page last modified: October 08, 2014
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