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Mesoscale Discussion 1830
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0817 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 080117Z - 080245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL/SW VA WILL CONTINUE EWD
   WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
   ISOLATED AND NO WW IS ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE STRENGTH THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF A LINE A TSTMS
   STRETCHING FROM MADISON COUNTY VA SWWD INTO FLOYD COUNTY VA.
   STORM-MOTION ESTIMATES PLACED THE MOTION OF THE STRONGEST PART OF
   LINE AROUND 260/50 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION
   HAVE YET TO YIELD ANY STRONG GUSTS BUT THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE
   SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT PER THE FCX VAD/ MAY ALLOW FOR
   MORE ROBUST STORM ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH WITH RESULTANT DOWNWARD
   MOMENTUM TRANSFER OVERCOMING BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION. SLIGHTLY
   MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM COULD AID IN THIS
   PROCESS AS WELL. AS A RESULT...SOME LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE
   POSSIBLE. OVERALL SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY AVAILABLE
   INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW/ISOLATED TO
   NECESSITATE A WW.

   ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 10/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38697701 38427675 37567696 36867853 37127941 37557906
               37937857 38387817 38697779 38847724 38697701 

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Page last modified: October 08, 2014
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