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Mesoscale Discussion 1831
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1831
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1006 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD...DEL AND SRN NJ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 080306Z - 080430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MODEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
   THE NRN PART OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TO UNDERGO INTENSIFICATION AS
   THEY CROSS THE BAY INTO ERN MD...DEL AND SRN NJ. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WAS INDICATED
   MOVING INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE LINE IS
   MOVING EAST AT 45-50 KT. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED DOWNSTREAM FROM
   THE STORMS WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG WITH NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS FROM
   60-62. 00Z WALLOPS RAOB SHOWED A DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC.
   HOWEVER...00Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
   NWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE LINE. ACTIVITY IS
   DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT LLJ. AS THE NEAR-SFC LAYER
   MOISTENS...STORMS MIGHT BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP FOR STORMS TO UNDERGO SOME
   INTENSIFICATION. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   WINDS WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR THAT WILL
   SUPPORT EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STORMS STRUCTURES INCLUDING MESO-VORTICES
   AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.

   GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WHICH IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING
   FACTOR...UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THE
   STORMS...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37917654 38897612 39657578 39977495 39657423 38777490
               37807570 37917654 

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Page last modified: October 08, 2014
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