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Mesoscale Discussion 1832
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN LONG ISLAND THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 080807Z - 081000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE APPEARS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
   INTENSIFICATION THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A TORNADO...THROUGH 11-13Z. 
   PROBABILITIES STILL SEEM LOW ENOUGH THAT A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF
   A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON VALLEYS...AND NORTHEAST OF
   THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MOSTLY WEAK...AND EVEN ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
   INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THAT ACTIVITY
   IS ROOTED WITHIN THE WEAK PRE-COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER
   INSTABILITY WHICH THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS IS PRESENT.  

   GIVEN THE APPARENT PRESENCE OF WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
   INSTABILITY...ENLARGING /AND CLOCKWISE CURVED/ LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   BENEATH 40-50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION
   BETWEEN NOW AND 11-13Z REMAIN OF PRIMARY CONCERN.  WHILE IT
   CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT ANY CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION
   OVER INLAND AREAS WILL BE ISOLATED AND/OR SHORT-LIVED IN NATURE...IT
   COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS...PERHAPS A TORNADO.

   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 10/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...

   LAT...LON   42997028 42436985 41706982 40737042 40417116 39997334
               40517353 42057275 42607236 43037143 42997028 

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Page last modified: October 08, 2014
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