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Mesoscale Discussion 1833
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0902 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...NWRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081402Z - 081530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS WITH AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF
   STORMS EVOLVING JUST S OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM W-CNTRL AR. OVERALL
   INTENSITY SHOULD WANE BY MIDDAY.

   DISCUSSION...A LONE MULTICELL CLUSTER NEAR THE AR RIVER VALLEY
   CENTERED OVER YELL AND POPE COUNTIES HAS HAD A HISTORY OF REPORTED
   TREE DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. 12Z LZK RAOB INDICATES AMPLE
   BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2300 J/KG AMIDST EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40
   KT SUPPORTING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND ATTEMPTS AT BOWING STRUCTURE.
   STILL...MUCH OF THE SHEAR IS CONCENTRATED AOA 600 MB WITH WEAK
   LOWER-LEVEL WLYS. THIS LIKELY SPEAKS TO THE MODEST FORWARD SPEED OF
   THE CONVECTION TO ONLY AROUND 20-30 KT. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   EXPECTED TO FURTHER DECREASE RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WAA...THE
   INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDDAY.
   THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE.
   BUT WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING ANTICIPATED OVER SERN AR INTO
   NRN MS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLUSTER COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
   SEVERE REPORTS EVEN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

   ..GRAMS/DARROW.. 10/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34709355 35019388 35349406 35549395 35719350 35599310
               35459199 35339108 35069001 34538985 34158992 33819016
               33659066 33819156 34249275 34709355 

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Page last modified: October 08, 2014
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