Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1835
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1835 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1835
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1103 PM CDT WED OCT 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...WRN AND CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 090403Z - 090530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE KS
   EXTENDING SEWD INTO CNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY THREAT
   THAT CAN DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE
   SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING
   THAT A VORTICITY MAX IS EVIDENT IN THE FLOW OVER SERN KS. THIS
   FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM
   NE KS SEWD INTO CNTRL MO. RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN
   KS AND SWRN MO WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESTIMATED IN THE 7.0 TO
   7.5 C/KM RANGE. AS CONVECTION STRENGTHENS ON THE NERN EDGE OF THE
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
   50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST
   OVER NE KS AND NW MO WHERE INSTABILITY IS STRONGER AND CELLS SHOULD
   DEVELOP BY 05Z AS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. ALTHOUGH A
   FEW STORMS MAY ROTATE...THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   ELEVATED WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 10/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   37469204 38679503 39119617 39359643 39659644 39939610
               40169549 40149498 40079441 39539290 38999195 38279065
               37629101 37469204 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 09, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities