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Mesoscale Discussion 1836
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 PM CDT THU OCT 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO AND ADJACENT OZARK PLATEAU

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091853Z - 092030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
   DEVELOP WITHIN A BROAD CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG A W/E-ORIENTED
   FRONTAL ZONE.

   DISCUSSION...INCREASING CG LIGHTNING AND CLOUD TOP COOLING INDICATE
   A GENERAL UPTICK IN A BROAD CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS E OF A SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR
   KHUT. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AMIDST 68-71 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS. CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON PER CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE AND
   SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT E/SE AS THE SURFACE COLD POOL EFFECTIVELY
   SHUNTS THE FRONTAL ZONE SWD TOWARDS THE AR BORDER. LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR
   IS WEAK PER SGF VWP DATA AND DEEP-LAYER WINDS ARE LARGELY PARALLEL
   TO THE COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW. THESE SHOULD BE MITIGATING FACTORS
   TO A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK. NEVERTHELESS...AROUND 30 KT 0-6 KM
   SHEAR COULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
   WITH ROBUST CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLUSTER.

   ..GRAMS/PICCA/HART.. 10/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37919094 37498972 36878973 36399048 36279371 36299511
               36669575 36989580 37419501 37769379 37919094 

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Page last modified: October 09, 2014
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