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Mesoscale Discussion 1836
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0839 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...SOUTHEAST LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 502...

   VALID 290239Z - 290415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 502 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 502 REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 03Z. IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT A SEVERE RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
   THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS RISK IS TOO SUBSTANTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
   EAST-CENTRAL MS TO SOUTHWEST MS AND CENTRAL LA MARKS THE NORTHERN
   EDGE OF GULF-MODIFIED AIR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MIDDLE 60S
   DEWPOINTS. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MARGINAL
   BUOYANCY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTERS CONTINUE BEING SUPPORTED BY MODEST POSITIVE THETA-E
   ADVECTION...BEFORE BEING UNDERCUT BY THE SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING
   BOUNDARY. OCCASIONAL WEAK CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH ACTIVITY
   IN PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL MS. 

   OVERALL...CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY WEAKLY ORGANIZED...AS STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL/DEEP ASCENT CONTINUE LIFTING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
   REGION. THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
   CONVECTIVE-CLUSTER MODE...MAY LIMIT SUSTAINABILITY OF INTENSE
   CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING
   CONVECTIVE-SCALE UPWARD ACCELERATIONS.

   NEVERTHELESS...WITH NOTABLY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF
   COAST -- I.E....DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F -- THE
   POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION MAY EXIST
   OVERNIGHT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY. WITH MODEST
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PERSISTING OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE
   RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM...SOME INCREASE
   IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE
   AREA...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO RISK COULD PERSIST.
   IF A PROMINENT CHANGE IN THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION WERE TO BECOME
   APPARENT...THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WATCH COULD BECOME NECESSARY.
   OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..COHEN.. 11/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30409162 31219128 32218870 32038805 31448798 30718864
               30269075 30409162 

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Page last modified: November 29, 2016
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