MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1837
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1036 AM CDT SUN AUG 09 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL NY INTO NRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 091536Z - 091600Z
   
   NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON FOR MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL NY AND
   PARTS OF NRN PA.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ACTIVITY IN SWRN-SOUTH
   CENTRAL ONTARIO HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED TO IN EXCESS OF 40
   KT.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS
   SRN ONTARIO...WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF THE LINE EXPECTED TO REACH WRN
   NY /NORTH OF BUF/ BY 1630Z.  AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONTARIO
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... GIVEN SURFACE HEATING AND
   DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S...WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE WEAK
   CAP EXPECTED.  THIS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS.  OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES SUGGESTED THE CAP HAS ALREADY ERODED FROM MUCH OF WRN PA
   INTO MUCH OF FAR WRN NY /NWD EXTENT TO JUST E OF BUF/...WHERE
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LESS CLOUDINESS THAN AREAS FURTHER
   DOWNSTREAM OVER CENTRAL NY/PARTS OF CENTRAL-ERN PA.  LATE MORNING
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM N OF BUF SEWD
   THROUGH CENTRAL PA TO SRN DELMARVA.  ONTARIO STORMS SHOULD TRACK
   SEWD INTO WRN NY TO NRN/CENTRAL PA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE
   PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 08/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   41908056 42457927 43267890 43407794 42877674 41917627
               40967732 40767846 40937933 41908056