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Mesoscale Discussion 1837
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1837
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CDT THU OCT 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092041Z - 092245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
   RANGE AND RATON MESA SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEEPEN INTO A FEW SUPERCELLS
   BY ABOUT 00Z. SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

   DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1010 MB CYCLONE 40 NE
   KICT WITH A COLD/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARCING ACROSS NW OK AND THE
   TX PANHANDLE TO A 1007 MB CYCLONE 30 W KRTN. INITIAL HIGH-BASED
   CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND RATON
   MESA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY INTO THE EVENING AS IT
   ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY BUOYANT AIR MASS WITHIN THE
   POST-FRONTAL/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME AND AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN THE
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. 

   PRESENCE OF A SWLY UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DOWNSTREAM OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL FOSTER ELONGATED/NEARLY
   STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS SHOULD
   YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE
   WIND. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A
   CLUSTER/SHORT-LINE SEGMENT WITH BOWING STRUCTURES DURING
   MID/LATE-EVENING.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 10/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37070476 37090365 36900278 36630195 36020115 35400094
               34970104 34700136 34730241 35030327 35470421 35890465
               36470500 36770513 37070476 

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Page last modified: October 09, 2014
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